Climate Climate & Energy

Peak oil, coal, and bizarre optimism

So last week Salon ran a big story on peak oil by Katharine Mieszkowski. It was decent, though focused a bit too much on the loony fringes. I guess the temptation to do that is irresistible when trying to make a long story about the Hubbert Curve and Venezuelan oil reserves compelling.

In response, John Quiggen (at the usually excellent Crooked Timber group blog) wrote a response I can only characterize as bizarre. But the comments under the post don't treat it as bizarre. And Ezra Klein linked to it as though it proved something, and then ladled more bizarritude on top. So either these guys -- who I regard as considerably smarter than yours truly -- are missing something, or I am. Let's take a tour.

Quiggen's point, briefly, is this: Peak oilers falsely exaggerate the problem by conflating oil with fossil fuels generally, implying that running out of the former means running out of the latter. But there's actually tons and tons of coal left, and it wouldn't be too hard to do what we do with oil with coal instead. So, you know, global warming's a problem, but running out of oil isn't.

I think that's a fair summary. And I think it's nuts.

What’s really disturbing about the new coal-fired ethanol plants.

David's post about ethanol and coal inspired me to do a bit of research on just how much coal goes into producing G.W. Bush's favorite "renewable," "clean-burning" fuel source.

What I found is ... disturbing.

Bait and Switchgrass

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TIME cover story on global warming

The cover story of this week's TIME magazine is on global warming. The title: "Be Worried. Be Very Worried." I agree with Chris that this is a huge deal, and further evidence that the issue of global warming is nearing a tipping point in public consciousness. The Battle of the Skeptics is over. They lost. Now talk will turn in earnest to what we can do about it.

Unfortunately, I can't read the whole story because I'm not a TIME subscriber. (Any intrepid Gristmill reader out there want to send me a copy?) It's also at the top of CNN.com right now, though, and they've got a short summary.

There's also a TIME/ABC poll on attitudes toward global warming, which reveals the same old grab bag of muddled opinions. Take this:

Almost half (49%) say the issue of global warming is "extremely important" or "very important" to them personally, up from 31% in 1998. When asked about the causes of rise in the world’s temperatures, 31% feel it is caused by the things people do, 19% feel it is due mostly to natural causes, and 49% feel it is a combination of the two. Almost seven-in-ten (68%) Americans think the government should do more to address global warming, according to the poll; however, 64% think scientists disagree with one another about global warming.

As I said here, what these kinds of polls reveal more than anything is that public opinion on this subject is amorphous and fluid. It is open to persuasion, ready to be shaped by strong leadership. More than anything, that's what this country is crying out for right now: strong national leadership.

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